Inflation for October comes down and leading economists say markets are soaring and year round rally expected
By TN Ashok
Washington, Nov 13: US President Joe Biden’s claims of an economic recovery following his inflation reduction plan seems to be working with inflation down in october this year and two leading economists have said that the markets are now soaring and that stocks will rally rally round in the year end.
Joe Biden in a video twitter claimed his “economic plan” was showing results and people had begun to feel it as inflation was coming down without job losses as stock markets started showing bullish trends, gasoline prices started sliding and house rents were coming down for the first time in the last six months. Biden’s claims were bolstered by two leading economists, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman and Jeremey Siegel who said October inflation rates were much less than anticipated or estimated by economists.They said markets were now soaring and they could rally round by the year end.
Billionaire Elon Musk and five others said inflation cooled more than expected in October this year and with markets now soaring warned the Federal Bank to desist from any further hikes in interest rates as investors feared another 75 basis points rate hike. Economists said October figures should motivate the Federal Bank not to increase rates beyond 25 basis points.
Biden said in a video twitter Thursday: “Folks, my economic plan is showing results. The people are starting to feel it. We’re making progress on bringing down inflation without losing jobs.” He added: “Americans are already paying around $1.20 less per gallon of gas than they were this summer.”
Biden literally fought the November midterms for the Senate and House with his back to the wall to prevent a predicted “Red Tsunami” on the issue of inflation stoked by ex-President Donald Trump led republicans saying high grocery and gas prices had disrupted lives on the kitchen table and people’s pocket books. The October figures for inflation slid and house rentals came down which could help the democrats in the runoff for Georgia that goes to polls on December 6 as its one of three states besides Nevada and Arizona that could decide the senate where democrats are tightly locked with republicans. Footballer Republican Herschell Walker and Democratic pastor Raphael Warnock could not cross the 50% threshold of voting for the Georgia seat necessitating the runoff.
The Labor Department said in a consumer price index report on Thursday that the cost of groceries climbed 0.5%, steadying the 12-month increase at 12.4%. Consumers are also continuing to pay more for items like cereal, bread, fresh fish and seafood, eggs and fresh vegetables including tomatoes and lettuce. “And it’s going to take time to get inflation back to normal levels but we’re going to keep at it,” Biden continued.
Despite most voters being led by Republican claims that the country was on the wrong track, Biden claimed the economy was going according to plan and it was now looking up. “We’re on the right track,” he said. “We’re not losing jobs. In the meantime, I’m going to keep fighting (inflation) to build an economy from the bottom up and the middle out.”
Biden’s message assumed significance as it came after Tuesday’s midterm elections in which Democrats performed better than expected, and many Republicans backed by Trump underperformed. The fate of the congress is as yet undecided with Republicans hanging onto 208 seats and Democrats 198 in the house and the Senate continues to puzzle the outcome as races become the closest fought so far with either side locked at 48 seats each, according to media reports. Reports from Wall Street showed US stocks soared as much as 4% early Thursday after October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a decline in inflation. The annual inflation rate was 7.7% in October which was below economist’s estimate of 7.9%. The ten year US treasury dipped by 20 basis points as investors expected a Fed hike to grow.
Wharton Business School Professor Jeremy Seigel said the stock market was poised for a significant year end rally because inflation was basically over. Billionaire Elon Musk, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman and notable figures like Investors Bill Gross, Macro Economist David Rosenberg, Businessman, Investor and TV Host Robert Herjavec and Assets Manager and leading banker Dr. Ed Yardeni have urged the US central bank not to hike interest rates too high, as it could have a devastating effect on the economy.
The Federal Bank is expected to meet shortly coinciding with the October figures of inflation and if it declines further, the Fed hike rates may be restricted to only 25 basis points, which is the normal intervention by the bank in normal inflation times.Fed chair Jerome Powell “is going to change his tune when they get to the real world data in their December meeting. I think this does make for a good year-end rally,” Siegel was quoted by the media as saying. Investors don’t need to load up on tech stocks just because stocks may rise into the year-end. Instead, Siegel is more bullish on value-oriented and dividend-paying stocks, and recommends investors own both value and growth in a balanced portfolio. “Both will be going up… hold a balanced portfolio,” Siegel said.