US Presidential elections of 2024 – The tightest race in american history between the Democrats & the Republicans – How it could change the state of the world
By TN Ashok.
Washington, October Shall we get down to how the US elections affects the world, the outcome of it, in terms of policy changes industrial, trade, economic, geo political and energy policies.
I have largely relied on the analysis made by BBC , because the UK once ruled the world, and London is still one of the most important trading financial hubs of the world. It enjoys the best of relations with the US in North America. BBC is state controlled and yet it enjoys a lot of autonomy in presenting its programmes and can resist high level interference even from 10 Downing street. Or the Buckingham Palace.
Here it goes : sector by sector : the clout the US has on international politics and how they affect countries .
When US President Joe Biden walked through Kyiv in February 2023 on a surprise visit to show solidarity with Volodymyr Zelensky, his Ukrainian counterpart, air sirens were wailing. “I felt something… more strongly than ever before,” he later recalled. “America is a beacon to the world.”
The world now waits to see who takes charge of this self-styled beacon after Americans make their choice in next week’s presidential election. Will Kamala Harris carry on in Biden’s footsteps with her conviction that in “these unsettled times, it is clear America cannot retreat”? Or will it be Donald Trump with his hope that “Americanism, not globalism” will lead the way?
We live in a world where the value of US global influence is under question. Regional powers are going their own way, autocratic regimes are making their own alliances, and the devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere are raising uncomfortable questions about the value of Washington’s role. But America matters by dint of its economic and military strength, and its major role in many alliances. I turned to some informed observers for their reflections on the global consequences of this very consequential election.
Military might – The strength of the US armed forces
“I cannot sugarcoat these warnings,” says Rose Gottemoeller, Nato’s former deputy secretary general. “Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with echoes of his threat to withdraw from Nato in everyone’s ears.”
Washington’s defense spending amounts to two-thirds of the military budgets of Nato’s 31 other members. Beyond Nato, the US spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.
Trump boasts he’s playing hardball to force other Nato countries to meet their spending targets, which is 2% of their GDP – only 23 of the member nations have hit this target in 2024. But his erratic statements still jar.
If Ms Harris wins, Ms Gottemoeller believes “Nato will no doubt be in good Washington hands.” But she has a warning there too. “She will be ready to continue working with Nato and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but she will not back off on [spending] pressure on Europe.”
But Harris’s team in the White House will have to govern with the Senate or the House, which could both soon be in Republican hands, and will be less inclined to back foreign wars than their Democratic counterparts. There’s a growing sense that no matter who becomes president, pressure will mount on Kyiv to find ways out of this war as US lawmakers become increasingly reluctant to pass huge aid packages. Whatever happens, Ms. Gottemoeller says, “I do not believe that Nato must fall apart.” Europe will need to “step forward to lead.”
So a Trump win means NATO can’t expect much support from the US government as he is very clear that he will not support those countries that spend less thn 2% of their GDP on defense. A Harris wins NATO gets the back of the US but not so easily if the senate and the congress – house of reps – both fall into the hands of the Republicans, which seems more likely, as the average US citizen has been disenchanted with the Biden-Harris combine running the economy, grocery and gas prices and inflation all touched all time peaks. Not their fault , they inherited a torn legacy from predecessor trump who had devastated the country by acting a tad too late to conttrol the spread of Covid which wiped out thousands as dead and out of their livelihood.
Trump inherited a robust economy from Obama and marched ahead for the first two years but Biden-Harris took over a legacy of a mismanaged economy and all their time was spent in repairing it, it took as long as end of december 2023 to achieve their goals. Inflation was down to 2.5% , jobs were upto 22.1 million ( us labour stats) and yet americans believe the Trumpian lie that the economy has tanked.
The Peacemaker?
The next US president will have to work in a world stalked by the potential dangers of confronting its greatest risk of major power confrontation since the Cold War. “The US remains the most consequential international actor in matters of peace and security”, Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, says. She puts a ryde or a caveat as you call it: “but its power to help resolve conflicts is diminished.”
Wars are becoming ever harder to end. “Deadly conflict is becoming more intractable, with big-power competition accelerating and middle powers on the rise,” is how Ms Ero describes the landscape. Wars like Ukraine pull in multiple powers, and conflagrations such as Sudan pit regional players with competing interests against each other, and some more invested in war than in peace.
America is losing the moral high ground, Ms. Ero says. “Global actors notice that it applies one standard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and another to Israel’s in Gaza. The war in Sudan has seen terrible atrocities but gets treated as a second-tier issue.”
A win by Ms Harris, she says, “represents continuity with the current administration.” If it’s Trump, he “might give Israel an even freer hand in Gaza and elsewhere, and has intimated he could try to cut a Ukraine deal with Moscow over Kyiv’s head.”
On the Middle East, the Democratic candidate has repeatedly echoed Mr Biden’s firm backing of Israel’s “right to defend itself.” But she’s also made a point of emphasizing that “the killing of innocent Palestinians has to stop.” At the last count 42,000 innocent civilians comprising mena, women and children had perished as collateral damage as a result of Israels aggressive push into the narrow conclave, better known as the GAZA, in its quest to crush the Hamas and fight the militant outfits in Lebanon and Yemen, the Hezbollah’s and the Youthis. And they are backed by a clericl ruled country Iran thats going nuclear.
Trump has also declared it’s time to “get back to peace and stop killing people.” But he’s reportedly told the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”Meaning he has given him a free hand to pursue what he wants. What does Bibi want ? Not to facilitate a ceasefire before the US elections so that he can get the democrats off his back now breathing down his neck for a ceasefire and a two state solution.The Republican contender prides himself on being a peacemaker. “I will have peace in the Middle East, and soon,” he vowed in an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya TV on Sunday night.
He’s promised to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords. These bilateral agreements normalized relations between Israel and a few Arab states, but were widely seen to have sidelined the Palestinians and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.
On Ukraine, Trump never hides his admiration for strongmen like Russia’s Vladimir Putin. He’s made it clear he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and with it the US’s hefty military and financial support. “I’ll get out. We got to get out,” he insisted in a recent rally.
Harris has pledged to be a firm ally to Ukraine
In contrast, Ms Harris has said: “I have been proud to stand with Ukraine. I will continue to stand with Ukraine. And I will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war.” But Ms Ero worries that, no matter who’s elected, things could get worse in the world.
Business with Beijing
“The biggest shock to the global economy for decades.” That’s the view of leading China scholar Rana Mitter regarding Trump’s proposed 60 percent tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.
Imposing steep costs on China, and many other trading partners, has been one of Trump’s most persistent threats in his “America first” approach. But Trump also lauds what he sees as his own strong personal connection with President Xi Jinping. He told the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board he wouldn’t have to use military force if Beijing moved to blockade Taiwan because the Chinese leader “respects me and he knows I’m [expletive] crazy.”
But both leading Republicans and Democrats are hawkish. Both see Beijing as being bent on trying to eclipse America as the most consequential power in the globe. Economists have argued in the US and elsewhere that steep tariffs on Chinese or Indian imports is self hurting the american economy. End of the day, its the american importer who is hit who imports at highest costs, sometimes so uneconomic, as not to make sense to import them. He has no qualms conscience in passing it onto the consumers.
Some leading economists in the US have argued that despite Trumps boast of high cost of tariffs reducing trade deficit with China and India, and abolistion of income tax, the lost of some nearly $2.5 billion in revenues, would be made up by drillig under his Drill Baby Drill in the oil shales of the USA to export oil and make money and also reduce dependance on foreign oil from the OPEC countries. No economics is not that simple. As Trump thinks. Economists say average american would see a rise of $2850 in his expenditure on buying goods from groceries to electronic goods annually. So who benefits from this tariff policy, no one. .
But Mr Mitter, a British historian who holds the ST Lee Chair in US-Asia relations at Harvard’s Kennedy School, sees some differences. With Ms Harris he says, “relations would likely develop in a linear fashion from where they are now.” If Trump wins, it’s a more “fluid scenario.” For example, on Taiwan, Mr Mitter points to Trump’s ambivalence about whether he would come to the defense of an island far away rom America.
China’s leaders believe both Ms Harris and Trump will be tough. Mr Mitter sees it as “a small group of establishment types favour Harris as ‘better the opponent you know.’ A significant minority see Trump as a businessman whose unpredictability might just mean a grand bargain with China, however unlikely that seems.”
Climate Crisis
“The US election is hugely consequential not just for its citizens but for the whole world because of the pressing imperative of the climate and nature crisis,” says Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders, a group of world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela, and former president of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
“Every fraction of a degree matters to avert the worst impacts of climate change and prevent a future where devastating hurricanes like Milton are the norm,” she added.
An extreme heat warning in Death Valley, California
But as Hurricanes Milton and Helene raged, Trump derided environmental plans and policies to confront this climate emergency as “one of the greatest scams of all time.” Many expect him to pull out of the 2015 Paris climate agreement as he did in his first term.
However, Ms Robinson believes Trump cannot stop the momentum now gathering steam. “He cannot halt the US energy transition and roll back the billions of dollars in green subsidies… nor can he stop the indefatigable non-federal climate movement.”
The fossil fuel lobby, the coal lobby that powers power plants, paradoxically lobbied by a powerful democrat Joe Manchin who never saw eye to eye with Biden and helped trim his Build Back Better initiative by a couple of billions to help the coal lobby – original estimate %1.7 trillion and revised estimated $1.2 trillion – . If Joe Manchin;s influence is diminished in the current election, then Harris may aggressively pursue the BBB initiatibe of her boss Biden.
Outsourcing: US corporates found it profitable to outsource much of their IT enabled services to countries like China, India and the Phillippines. Meaning preferring an outsider than an American for a job at a much lesser salary. Trump when he came to power insisted that an American e considered for the job first and the minimum wage should be $100,000 a year to discourage Indian and Chinese companies from bringing their labour into America.
Biden had been liberalizing the immigration process for IT professionals especially the H1B visas for Indians that has piled up after the pandemic shock. He has fast tracked them to bring the labor force in faster to compete with Chinese imports. Biden introduced several measures to restrict import of super conductors used in AI from China even as he banned amerian companies exporting chips to China which was using them in their AI enabled technologies much to the chagrin of the US admin.
The US company NVIDIA heavily invested into developing super semi-conductors for various uses in IT industry particularly AI, was the largest exporter and its sales were restricted , but the company said its global sales were so high that it did not impact their revenues much.
Image Courtesy : https://www.newsx.com
Expect a part 2 on this subject.
Source : BBC and other media networks.