In a dramatic shift of power, the Labour Party has ousted the Conservatives after 14 years, marking a new chapter in British politics. This landslide victory is more than a mere change of government; it signifies a profound shift in public sentiment and political allegiance, offering Labour the opportunity to implement the alternative policies they have meticulously developed during their prolonged tenure in opposition. For the first time since Brexit, the British electorate has rallied behind a unified cause, as opinion polls had foreseen the imminent defeat of the Conservatives. The election results highlight a significant change in loyalties, with even incumbent cabinet ministers failing to secure their seats in the House of Commons.
The Conservative era began with a hung parliament in 2010 and saw a succession of leaders as varied as Boris Johnson’s fiery rhetoric, Liz Truss’s chaos, David Cameron’s judgmental approach, Theresa May’s stubbornness, and Rishi Sunak’s benevolence. This period also witnessed two pivotal referendums: one on Scottish independence and the other on Brexit. These referendums led to sweeping Conservative victories in the 2015 and 2019 elections, further solidifying their grip on power.
However, the stage is now set for a new chapter. Sir Keir Starmer, the newly elected Prime Minister, delivered a victory speech that resonated with the themes of “National Renewal” and “Country First, Party Second.” This shift towards a centre-left government is a breath of hope for liberals worldwide, especially as Europe grapples with the rise of far-right movements.
One notable group affected by this change is the Indian community, with Rishi Sunak, (the “Damad” of India), no longer in office. With the departure of Mr. Sunak, many Indians are notably disappointed, but there is a silver lining. The new Parliament boasts a record number of Indian-origin MPs, potentially exceeding the 15-seat benchmark set in 2019. This increase in representation signals the growing influence of British Indians, not only within their community but also in shaping the future of the UK. As the largest ethnic group in the country, the 1.8 million British Indians play a crucial role in the nation’s political landscape.
Challenges Ahead for the New Government
The new Labour government faces numerous challenges, starting with the cost-of-living crisis. In any capitalist country, prices are always a central issue. It’s crucial to understand that falling inflation does not equate to falling prices but rather indicates prices rising at a slower pace. Recent estimates suggest that the cost of services is increasing rapidly by recent decades’ standards, with a 5.9% annual rise compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping to 2%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Additionally, a survey reveals that around 10.1 million people in the UK are struggling to keep up with bills or find their payments a heavy burden.
Another pressing issue is the quality of care under the National Health Service (NHS). Waiting lists for treatment referrals in England hit 7.6 million in April, a threefold increase since 2010. The chronic underinvestment that began with the 2008 financial crisis has continued, with funding increases failing to match the necessary growth rate. A think tank estimates that an additional £38 billion is needed, on top of current funding, to clear the backlog and improve care quality for those suffering from the cost-of-living crisis.
Education spending has also decreased in tune with increased defense spending due to conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict. This shift is driving interest rates up and crowding out investment for social spending. The government has pledged to increase the defense budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, amounting to an additional £75 billion in funding over the next six years.
Implications for India-UK Relations
India’s current regime may not be particularly Labour-friendly, but the new government must reconcile significant issues such as trade, climate change, immigration, and forging a resilient and prosperous partnership in a tumultuous world. With a stable government at the helm, the prospects for a free trade deal are brighter than ever, moving beyond the rolling agreements of the past. However, climate issues, particularly carbon taxing, could pose significant hurdles. The UK plans to implement a mechanism similar to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which might delay the trade deal proposition.
However, Sir Starmer leads a transformed Labour Party that has distanced itself from Jeremy Corbyn’s anti-India stance. Under Starmer’s leadership, the Labour Party has emphasized the importance of close ties with India. His arrival at 10 Downing Street is widely celebrated as pro-India, signaling a positive shift in bilateral relations. To conclude, the Labour Party’s victory marks the beginning of a new era for the UK. With a focus on national renewal and a commitment to putting the country before the party, Sir Keir Starmer’s government aims to address the critical issues facing the nation. From tackling the cost-of-living crisis and improving NHS care to balancing defense spending with social investment, the new administration has its work cut out. However, with a diverse and representative Parliament, there is hope for a brighter and more inclusive future for all Britons.
(The author is Ms. Hemangi Sinha, Project Head at World intellectual Foundation and the Co-Author is Mr. Apaar Wadhwa, Research Associate at World Intelelctual Foundation)